The European power system is changing rapidly. The increasing amount of subsidized intermittent renewable production is pushing the power prices down in the Nordic countries and in Continental Europe. At the same time, technological development is further improving the competitiveness of wind and solar power as well as storage technologies. As the European power balance keeps changing, the European grid should handle a large amount of variable power production. At the same time, an adequate supply of security should be provided. Сannibalization of wind and solar power production increases the break-even level for intermittent renewable production closer to the end of the modelling period.
The recent market changes are elaborated, and the analyses provide insights into the Nordic and Baltic long-term development. As the Nordic countries have been closer interconnected with Europe recently, we have also increased the focus on Central Europe. The impact of the growth of renewables, power demand, and generation and transmission capacity changes is taken into account. We have also assessed the effect of the decreasing capture rate for wind and solar power in our “Long-Term Power Outlook 2017 Edition”.
- Overview of the recent changes and uncertainty in commodity prices and hydrology
- Estimation of renewable capacity development for each price area
- Assessment of nuclear expansion and decommission in line with the recent statements
- Assessment of the longer-term capture rate for the Nordic wind power
- Updated plans for new interconnector capacity based on the current information
- Assessment of scenarios for future demand development
- Assessment of scenarios for future EUA development
- Complete modelling of the Nordic, European, Baltic and Russian power markets
- Coverage period 2017-2056
- 40 years fundamental forecast of the Nordic, Baltic and Central European power markets for each price area
- Three different scenarios for the market development analysing the impact of fuel and EUA prices, growth in demand, development of renewable and thermal production
- The report with background information, summary of assumptions and analysis of the results
- Detailed results with weekly prices for each price area, distribution of different hydrological years and scenario specific energy balances delivered electronically in Excel-sheets
- Presentation with the summary of the analysis and main conclusions