SKM Market Predictor has now released the December update of our annual Long-Term Elcertificate Outlook 2017 study. The main study was published in May this year showing price development for a base and a sensitivity scenario throughout the elcertificate period.
On 20. June 2017 a new target for production of renewable energy passed the Swedish Parliament. The production will be increased by another 18 TWh by 2030 and the elcertificate scheme will be extended to 2045. The Parliament also approved a new agreement for a continuation of a common elcertificate market between Sweden and Norway in the extended period. The new agreement is effective from 1. January 2018.
The elcertificate price has remained low following the significant decline at the end of last year. However during October the price has recovered somewhat and even if the balance still is positive, we expect it to weaken towards beginning of next year. This opens up for still rising prices. Besides, the political uncertainty that characterized the market a year ago is not present this year. These factors seem to have recreated an increased interest in the elcertificate market.
Renewable production under construction in Norway and Sweden has increased from our previous study, and growing investment interest in renewable production in general. Per second quarter 2017 18.5 TWh new production is approved within the common target of 28.4 TWh of which 14.7 TWh in Sweden and 3.8 TWh in Norway. In addition 11 TWh is being built in Sweden and Norway. Although not all new production under construction in Sweden is entitled to receive elcertificates, the common target of 28.4 TWh will be overinvested.
The main uncertainty is how much the target is exceeded by 2021 and the build-up rate of new capacity in Sweden after 2022. This is the backdrop for our December update.
- Updated statistics per third quarter of 2017
- Updated power price development by the end of November 2017
- Updated assumptions for the scenarios base and sensitivity from main study
• Greater overbuilding of the 28.4 TWh target
• Front-heavy build-up of new capacity after 2022
- Predicted development of the elcertificate balance and price until 2045
- Simplified report containing summary of assumptions, discussion and comments of the results
- Detailed results with weekly average prices for the elcertificates with probability distribution, demand and supply forecast provided in Excel-sheets
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