Sensitivity analysis: How crucial is NO1-SE3 capacity for the coming winter prices? 

Market prices have risen sharply during the past weeks, pushed up by the fundamentals.

• Dry and cold weather has weakened the hydro balance.

• The reduced export capacity from NO4 together with the reduced exchange capacity for NO1-SE3 have led to a major price differences between the Elspot areas. The deficit in NO1, which is very dependent on winter load in Oslo area, defines the export capacity from NO1 to SE3.

The objective of this study is to analyze how this capacity affects the system and the Elspot area prices if the coming winter is dry and cold.

• What is the limit for the price?

• Is a weak hydro balance crucial, or is the reduced export capacity the strongest price driver?

This study is now available for 1500 EUR.

The study contains written report and spreadsheet, both are available for downloading.

If you have any questions please contact us using contact information below

Ole Rismark
Senior Analyst
Tel: +47 918 21 645

Svein Nyland
Head of Analysis
Tel: +47 952 52 219